Darryl Woodford

I have a couple of more personal entries, plus some thoughts on the Eve PLEX changes to come, but for now some quick items that I added to my ‘To Blog’ list, but never actually got around to:

From CNN, ‘Want to sound like a world cup expert?’, confirming everything we ever thought about Americans This article included such gems as:

Phrases to impress your boss

“The referee’s blind!”
An excellent phrase to insert when those around you lament a goal that “never was,” a clear handball or a murderous foul not spotted by the official.

“There’s a case for video technology”
Following your previous observation about the referee’s eyesight, join the calls for video replays to help him make the right decision.

“He’s got two left feet”
As frustration grows with one hapless player in particular, make sure you aren’t left out.

via CNN

Fangraphs, which is one of a growing number of sabermetric (mathematical/statistical study of baseball) sites around the web, picked up on a MLB plan to sell what amount to Playoff Ticket Futures — you pay a fee now to have the right to buy a ticket to playoff games down the road. The Math looks a little like this:

Ok, so should you take part in this program? First, answer these questions: would you like to see a playoff game? Is it worth it to pay above the face value of the ticket to ensure you can go? If so, by how much? That is how much more than face value would you be willing to pay for a given game, assuming that game were to take place. Let’s call that amount, x. Now assuming the probability of the game taking place is p, the the value of the option is:

Value = (1-p)*0 + p*x

Say you are thinking of buying the option to see Game One of the Rangers’ potential ALDS. If they make the playoffs at all this game will happen, and using BPro’s playoff odds they are 82.9% to make the playoffs. So you should buy the option if:

0.829x > 10

x > $12.06

Would you pay the face value of the ticket plus $12.06 to see the Rangers play Games One or Three in Arlington of a ALDS? If so, and you have faith in BPro’s playoff odds, you should buy this $10 option now. Seventeen percent of the time it will be worthless, but 83% of the time you will have something you value at over $12.06.

via Fangraphs.com

The highlight is that the break-even price to watch the Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series is somewhere in the region of $400 million, yet you can be sure somebody will buy that option. For the Angels it’s about $400, which is probably only indicative of the fact we are struggling with an outside shot this year.

And a couple of randoms from Richard Bartle’s blog, who seems to have fallen for the same airline fail as was inflicted upon me on my journey from London to Singapore earlier this year, getting this as a seat:

via QBlog

Also worth visiting is his photo gallery from Leipzig, where he was speaking at Games Convention Online (where I was speaking this time last year), some good memories there, but what sparked my memory was this one of the station (where I caught trains to/from Berlin):

via QBlog

There’s a really awesome sausage shop below that station, where I stocked up on a ton of Saucisson and Black Pudding to take back to Denmark, where the only thing that resembled a sausage was bright red and revolting.